With Tinubu, Amaechi, Saraki on His Side, Odds Favour Buhari in APC

 General Muhammadu Buhari

•    Atiku, Kwankwaso, Nda-Isaiah oppose consensus candidacy

By Onyebuchi Ezigbo in Abuja

Mindful of the divisions that could arise from the conduct of primaries, key leaders of All Progressives Congress might have decided to choose the party's presidential candidate for next year’s election through a consensus arrangement. This plan, it is learnt, strongly favours the emergence of former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, as the APC candidate.

Indications to that effect emerged at the weekend, ahead of Wednesday’s extraordinary convention of the party, which is a prelude to the national convention to pick its presidential nominee.

THISDAY learnt that many APC stakeholders are favourably disposed to the arrangement to present Buhari. Prominent among the party’s leaders believed to be rooting for Buhari are APC national leader and former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu, Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, and senator for Kwara Central senatorial district and former governor of Kwara State, Dr. Bukola Saraki.

But the other main presidential aspirants of the party have maintained their opposition to the consensus plan. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, and publisher of Leadership newspaper, Mr Sam Nda-Isaiah, want the party to hold an open primary election to pick its presidential candidate.

Party insiders told THISDAY that in deciding on consensus, APC leaders were minded to avoid possible post-primary backlashes and serious divisions within the party’s own ranks that could weaken it in face of the impending contest against the incumbent president and sole candidate of Peoples Democratic Party, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. They were also careful to go for a nominee that would command the national popularity that the opposition party needs badly to put up an effective showing at the polls.

APC had on August 21 adopted what it called the modified direct primaries as part of the guidelines for selecting its presidential candidate. Announcing the decision at the end of its inaugural National Executive Committee meeting in Abuja, the APC national publicity secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, had said about 300,000 party men would be voting under the modified direct primaries to determine the APC presidential candidate.  Mohammed said, “The adoption of direct primaries will ensure the participation of a large number of our members.
INEC guidelines provided for either direct or indirect primaries, but we have opted for the direct method that will ensure the largest participation of our members.

“We called it modified direct primaries because we are also aware of the challenges of getting about 20 million of our members to queue up for an election, especially in areas where we have security challenges.”

But a reliable source within the APC leadership said yesterday that after series of consultations and negotiations, the party had decided to abandon the option of modified direct primaries for the indirect method. The source said the party intended to use the extraordinary convention scheduled for Wednesday to approve the number of delegates that will participate in the electoral colleges under the party's indirect primaries system.

Indications are that the national leadership of APC is determined to push for a consensus arrangement that would lead to the emergence of Buhari as the party's presidential candidate. The party bigwigs pushing this position believe the former Head of State has a better chance of pulling the votes for the party.

With APC’s apparent preference for a northern presidential candidate that would slug it out with PDP’s Jonathan, the major aspirants currently vying for the APC ticket are from the North.

Former National Chairman of PDP, Chief Audu Ogbeh, who is now a chieftain of APC, is among party stalwarts working to realise the Buhari candidature.

National Vice Chairman of APC for North-east, Mr. David Lawal, has openly expressed support for Buhari, despite coming from the same state as Atiku.

Many APC leaders, including the governors, are said to be backing Buhari. A clear indication of this was the presence of a good number of the governors and Tinubu at the public declaration of presidential ambition by Buhari on October 15 in Abuja. About four governors and a large number National Assembly and state assembly members on the platform of the party had attended the former Head of State’s declaration.

Tinubu controls the party in the South-west, which has the highest voting population after the North-west. So his endorsement of Buhari would be an obvious plus for the former Head of State.

The stiffest contest for the APC presidential ticket is expected to be between Buhari and Atiku. Kwankwaso is billed to declare his intention to vie for the APC presidential ticket this week. But pundits believe he may eventually step down for Buhari under a consensus bargain, having come from the same zone as the former military leader.

But Kwankwaso said recently that those canvassing the consensus arrangement were people used to small parties. He said, “Many people were used to either small parties or let me say medium-sized parties where people sit down and choose somebody in a room. Now we are talking about APC mega party, which is not ANPP, CPC, APGA, or ACN.

“It’s a collection of all and we always tell people to look at the example of PDP. From 1999 to 2011, each election, they had to go for primary elections, not arranged election, but real elections.

“Even when we had sitting presidents in 2003 and 2011, there were elections, serious elections. And that’s why the PDP has been winning all along and all others who are making arranged elections are losing elections.

“As you can see, as fate would have it, now PDP has decided to do their own primary in the Villa and the APC is going to the field. That shows us clearly that APC will win elections and the PDP will lose election in 2015.”

Kwankwaso added, "We have always been consistent, but you see many people who are soliciting a president from this consensus, many of them are having in mind that when people go and sit down they will give it to their candidate. That’s consensus to them, that’s the main issue.

“I believe that since this party is very strong, all candidates should go round the country and campaign, bring in more hands, more people, and that is exactly what we are doing. In the last few weeks many people joined APC because of me and they will continue to join, especially, if I have a ticket.”

In the wake of the adoption of the modified direct primaries, Atiku had spoken in a similar vein. He said, "Those who are canvassing for automatic ticket are scared of a contest. Why should they be canvassing for automatic ticket in a democratic process? They are just scared and afraid of the contest. There is nothing like automatic ticket, they must have been coming from a background that is not so democratic in nature. It is not like the PDP where there is something like allocations.

“The electorate will determine who wins the ticket through the primaries and everybody is optimistic about his chances. But eventually, it is the electorate that will determine who wins it. That is the end of the story."

But the leadership of APC is being careful not to be seen as keen on a Buhari consensus, even though the effort has its tacit endorsement.

An APC source said some leaders of the party had muted the idea of offering the chairmanship of the party's Board of Trustees to one of the presidential aspirants to secure his withdrawal for Buhari, in a bid to maintain unity and solidarity in the party as it goes into the presidential election. The source explained that it was for this reason that the members of the BoT had deliberately decided not to elect its leadership until the issue of the presidential ticket was finalised.

However, Mohammed, referring to an assertion by the APC National Chairman, Chief John Oyegun, said the leadership of the party will not force the aspirants to adopt a consensus candidate.

The national publicity secretary said, “Only yesterday, my chairman said it is only the aspirants that can agree on consensus among themselves. The role of the party is to ensure that the guidelines are followed.

“If the aspirants agree on a consensus, we are happy, but if they do not, we will go on to organise the primaries and every aspirant will be involved in the mechanism of the primaries.”

The APC spokesman declined to comment on the exact number of delegates that will take part in the presidential primaries, saying anyone who wants to know who is eligible to partake in the indirect primaries should wait till after the convention. He said the party hoped to secure approvals, including constitution amendments that will clear the ground for the primaries.

It is learnt that the modified direct primaries earlier adopted by the party runs contrary to its constitution, which states that primaries shall be either through direct or indirect method.

While addressing journalists at the end of APC's NEC meeting last week in Abuja, the national publicity secretary said the party had scheduled an extraordinary convention for October 29 to undertake some amendments to its constitution.

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